This time last year, I updated the Dogs and Puppies of STI for 2015. They are as follows (see The Dogs and Puppies of STI for 2015 for more info):
Puppies of STI 2015
- A-Reit
- CapitaMall Trust
- HPH Trust
- SingTel
- ST Engineering
- Keppel Corp
- SembCorp
- SIA Engineering
- SPH
- Starhub
How did they perform in 2015? The results are shown below.
| Price 31/12/14 | Price 31/12/15 | Div | Div Yield | Return (excl. Div) |
Return (incl. Div) |
|
| Puppies | ||||||
| A-Reit | $2.38 | $2.28 | 17.70 | 7.4% | -4.2% | 3.2% |
| CapitaMall | $2.04 | $1.93 | 11.23 | 5.5% | -5.4% | 0.1% |
| HPH Trust US$ | $0.69 | $0.53 | 4.87 | 7.1% | -23.2% | -16.1% |
| SingTel | $3.90 | $3.70 | 17.50 | 4.5% | -5.1% | -0.6% |
| ST Engg | $3.40 | $3.01 | 16.00 | 4.7% | -11.5% | -6.8% |
| Non-Puppies | ||||||
| Keppel Corp | $8.85 | $6.51 | 48.00 | 5.4% | -26.4% | -21.0% |
| SembCorp | $4.45 | $3.05 | 16.00 | 3.6% | -31.5% | -27.9% |
| SIA Engg | $4.22 | $3.70 | 14.50 | 3.4% | -12.3% | -8.9% |
| SPH | $4.21 | $3.94 | 20.00 | 4.8% | -6.4% | -1.7% |
| Starhub | $4.15 | $3.70 | 20.00 | 4.8% | -10.8% | -6.0% |
| Dogs | 5.1% | -13.7% | -8.6% | |||
| Puppies | 5.8% | -9.9% | -4.0% | |||
| STI | 3365.15 | 2882.73 | 97.00 | 2.9% | -14.3% | -11.5% |
As shown above, both the Dogs and Puppies outperformed the STI in 2015, although all 3 have negative returns. Inclusive of dividends, the Dogs returned -8.6% while the Puppies returned -4.0%, both better than STI's -11.5%. A key factor for the overperformance is the higher dividend yields of the Dogs and Puppies, which have yields of 5.1% and 5.8% respectively, compared to STI's 2.9%. Excluding dividends, the Dogs returned -13.7%, which is only marginally better than STI's -14.3%. The Puppies did better than the Dogs, returning -9.9%.
The overperformance of the Dogs and Puppies relative to STI in 2015 reversed the underperformance in 2014, when STI returned a postive 9.0%. Generally, the relative performance of the Dogs and Puppies relative to STI is to be expected. Due to the inclusion of REITs in the STI, which have much higher dividend yields compared to the other component stocks, the Dogs and Puppies will have a higher weightage of REITs. In the 2015 edition, there were 3 REITs in the Dogs and Puppies, namely, A-Reit, CapitaMall Trust and HPH Trust. Because of their higher dividend yields, REITs also tend to have less price fluctuations. Thus, in the years when STI is rising (e.g. 2014), the Dogs and Puppies will tend to underperform it. Conversely, in the years when STI is falling (e.g. 2015), the Dogs and Puppies will tend to overperform it.
The overperformance of the Dogs and Puppies relative to STI in 2015 reversed the underperformance in 2014, when STI returned a postive 9.0%. Generally, the relative performance of the Dogs and Puppies relative to STI is to be expected. Due to the inclusion of REITs in the STI, which have much higher dividend yields compared to the other component stocks, the Dogs and Puppies will have a higher weightage of REITs. In the 2015 edition, there were 3 REITs in the Dogs and Puppies, namely, A-Reit, CapitaMall Trust and HPH Trust. Because of their higher dividend yields, REITs also tend to have less price fluctuations. Thus, in the years when STI is rising (e.g. 2014), the Dogs and Puppies will tend to underperform it. Conversely, in the years when STI is falling (e.g. 2015), the Dogs and Puppies will tend to overperform it.
What happens if you exclude the REITs from the Dogs and Puppies? The performance for 2015 is as shown in the table below.
| Price 31/12/14 | Price 31/12/15 | Div | Div Yield | Return (excl. Div) |
Return (incl. Div) |
|
| Puppies | ||||||
| Noble Grp | $1.14 | $0.40 | 0.95 | 0.8% | -64.9% | -64.1% |
| Olam | $2.02 | $1.82 | 2.50 | 1.2% | -9.9% | -8.7% |
| SembMar | $3.26 | $1.75 | 12.00 | 3.7% | -46.3% | -42.6% |
| SingTel | $3.90 | $3.70 | 17.50 | 4.5% | -5.1% | -0.6% |
| ST Engg | $3.40 | $3.01 | 16.00 | 4.7% | -11.5% | -6.8% |
| Non-Puppies | ||||||
| Keppel Corp | $8.85 | $6.51 | 48.00 | 5.4% | -26.4% | -21.0% |
| SembCorp | $4.45 | $3.05 | 16.00 | 3.6% | -31.5% | -27.9% |
| SIA Engg | $4.22 | $3.70 | 14.50 | 3.4% | -12.3% | -8.9% |
| SPH | $4.21 | $3.94 | 20.00 | 4.8% | -6.4% | -1.7% |
| Starhub | $4.15 | $3.70 | 20.00 | 4.8% | -10.8% | -6.0% |
| Dogs | 3.7% | -22.5% | -18.8% | |||
| Puppies | 3.0% | -27.5% | -24.6% | |||
| STI | 3365.15 | 2882.73 | 97.00 | 2.9% | -14.3% | -11.5% |
Noble, Olam and SembMar will take the places of A-Reit, CapitaMall Trust and HPH Trust among the Puppies. Inclusive of dividends, Noble dropped by 64.1% and SembMar dropped by 42.6% in 2015, pulling down the performance of Dogs and Puppies to -18.8% and -24.6% respectively. Thus, it is perhaps better to stick to the original Dogs of Dow theory and not try to tinker with it!
Moving on to 2016, the table below shows the dividend yields of STI component stocks in descending order:
| Counter | Div (cents) | Price 31/12/15 | Div Yield | Remarks |
| HPH Trust US$ | 4.87 | $0.53 | 9.19% | Puppy |
| A-Reit | 17.70 | $2.28 | 7.76% | Puppy |
| Kep Corp | 48.00 | $6.51 | 7.37% | Dog |
| SembMar | 12.00 | $1.75 | 6.86% | Puppy |
| CapitaMall | 11.23 | $1.93 | 5.82% | Puppy |
| UOB | 110.00 | $19.61 | 5.61% | Dog |
| StarHub | 20.00 | $3.70 | 5.41% | Dog |
| ST Engg | 16.00 | $3.01 | 5.32% | Puppy |
| SembCorp | 16.00 | $3.05 | 5.25% | Dog |
| SPH | 20.00 | $3.94 | 5.08% | Dog |
| YZJ | 5.50 | $1.11 | 4.98% | |
| SingTel | 17.50 | $3.70 | 4.73% | |
| OCBC Bk | 36.00 | $8.80 | 4.09% | |
| SIA Engg | 14.50 | $3.70 | 3.92% | |
| SGX | 29.00 | $7.70 | 3.77% | |
| SATS | 14.00 | $3.84 | 3.65% | |
| DBS | 60.00 | $16.69 | 3.59% | |
| ThaiBev | 2.38 | $0.69 | 3.45% | |
| ComfortDelGro | 8.50 | $3.05 | 2.79% | |
| Wilmar | 8.00 | $2.94 | 2.72% | |
| HKLand US$ | 19.00 | $7.00 | 2.71% | |
| Capitaland | 9.00 | $3.35 | 2.69% | |
| GLP | 5.50 | $2.15 | 2.56% | |
| SIA | 27.00 | $11.20 | 2.41% | |
| UOL | 15.00 | $6.24 | 2.40% | |
| Noble Grp | 0.95 | $0.40 | 2.38% | |
| Jardine C&C | 78.30 | $34.85 | 2.25% | |
| CityDev | 16.00 | $7.65 | 2.09% | |
| Genting SP | 1.00 | $0.77 | 1.30% | |
| GoldenAgri | 0.18 | $0.34 | 0.52% |
Just to recap, the Dogs of STI are the 10 highest-yielding dividend stocks in the STI, while the Puppies of STI are the 5 lowest-priced stocks among the Dogs of STI. Thus, the Dogs and Puppies of STI for 2016 are as follows:
Puppies of STI 2016
- A-Reit
- CapitaMall Trust
- HPH Trust
- SembMar
- ST Engineering
Other Dogs of STI 2016
- Keppel Corp
- SembCorp
- SPH
- Starhub
- UOB
So far, since 2014, the Dogs & Puppies and STI have won 1 time each. Which will win in 2016? We shall wait and see!
See related blog posts:
Great! Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome!
DeleteThanks for sharing. I really like it that you do it every year. And make comparison over the years. Was surprised that the dogs and puppies did so badly in 2015. All the best and Huat ah!
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome!
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