In stock recommendation reports, the stock analyst has to declare his
shareholding in the recommended stocks. When he declares that he holds
certain stocks, do you then treat his stock recommendations with some
suspicion, wondering whether he is recommending certain stocks so that
the rest of the public would buy and lead to a rise in the stocks that
he holds? And if 2 stock analysts (Analysts A & B) both recommend
the same stock but Analyst A doesn't hold any shares in the stock and
Analyst B does, who would you believe in more? Most people would believe
in Analyst A more, because he has no vested interest in his
recommendations. However, should that be the case?
Analyst
B puts his money where his mouth is. If the stock drops, at least he
suffers a loss together with his clients. And when he is prepared to put
his money in, he would be more careful in analysing the stock being
recommended. If the stock drops, he would learnt where has he made a
mistake in his stock analysis and would review the stock more regularly
for any changes in prospects. For as long as he holds the stock, he has
the same interest as his clients. In contrast, Analyst A neither gain or
lose regardless of how the stock performs in future. He may have no
vested interest, but that also means less alignment to the interests of
his clients. While one might argue that a wrong stock recommendation
would lead to clients not believing in him in future, this is rarely the
case as investors generally do not track the performance of stock
analysts. Stock recommendations are essentially an opportunity for
investors to trade the stock short-term. Hence, for long-term investors,
isn't it important that they consider whether the analyst holds the
stock in the mid- to long-term?
As an analogy, imagine
that you wish to travel to an exotic destination for a holiday. 2 travel
agents (Travel Agents A & B) offer their travel packages to you,
but Travel Agent A has never travelled there and will not be
accompanying you on this trip. On the other hand, Travel Agent B has
travelled there and will be on the same trip as you. Which travel agent
would you sign up with? More likely Travel Agent B, because of his
experience and his presence on the same trip. If this is the case,
shouldn't investors believe in Analyst B more when it comes to stock
recommendations? This is one of the paradoxes in stock investing.
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