Sunday, 26 April 2015

From Third World to First

This is a tribute to Mr Lee Kuan Yew from the perspective of a financial blogger. The more formal tribute can be found here

Mr Lee has often been lauded for bring Singapore from Third World to First World in one generation. In the process, he has also received a fair share of criticism for his actions. In a way, many of us in Generation X and older are also trying to do the same, striving to bring our own families from Third World to First World in one generation. I grew up in an era when we do not own our roof. We had to move from places to places every few years, hence, I often had to travel long distances to school. My daily pocket money during primary school days was a mere $0.30! And putting a son through 4 years of university education was a not-insignificant strain on the family finances.

When I graduated, things were better. We could consider ourselves in the Second World by then. We owned our own roof, thus bringing much needed stability. I could, in theory, own a car with my new-found job. But knowing that there were only 40 years to build up a nest-egg before retirement starts, I had to save. I am sure many like-minded financial bloggers would understand when I say it is a fairly single-minded, no-nonsense mission to build up a comfortable cushion for our families during good and bad times. 

We keep track of our daily expenses and cut out any unnecessary expenses. We save and invest for the future. We have a keen eye for details when it comes to extracting maximum value-for-money, including deciding where to eat, what to wear, which credit cards to use, etc. I would imagine for those bloggers with wife and children, they would subconsciously influence them to do the same, occasionally earning an authoritarian label from them ;) Sometimes, our family members would advise us to spend a portion of our reserves and live better now that the finances are better, but old habits simply die hard. We are generally not generous folks that contribute much to social safety nets, at least not when there are still external risks to be managed. As we grow older, we would scan for external risks that could deal a hard blow to our finances, such as rising medical costs if our loved ones were to get sick or high housing prices if we had to buy one. We do not always have a solution to these worries, except to keep on saving for rainy days, knowing that nobody owes us a living. We keep our worries to ourselves, because there are no added benefits in having more people worried about them. Very often, the people around us do not understand what we do, but it does not really bother us, so long as we achieve what we set out to do. And finally, when the job is done and it is time for us to say bye-bye to this world, we would like to leave in the quietest manner possible, because that is the way we have lived our lives.

From Third World to First World in one generation. Whether it is building up a nation or a family, it requires sacrifices and hard decisions. Not everyone will understand at that moment in time, especially when you are at the receiving end of it. But let's hope that one day when we look back, as we enjoy the fruits of many years of labour, we can appreciate and understand the intention behind those actions.


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Sunday, 19 April 2015

Retiring at 40

Most people hope to retire before the age of 40. I just reached my 40th birthday 2 months ago, but no, I did not retire before that day. The idea of retiring before 40 does not sit well with me. Even when I am on vacation leave, I would try to fill up the day with some activities so that I would not feel the day is wasted. Hence, the thought of having to think about what to do everyday for the next 40 years really shudders me. In fact, I am actually thinking of working beyond the retirement age of 65 to keep myself occupied!

If you have been following the Tree of Prosperity blog written by Christopher Ng, you would know that he succeeded in retiring before 40. He is actually my senior in secondary school, junior college, university and post-graduate studies. Compared to him, I knew that I was not ready to retire before 40. He has been growing his dividend income steadily, and has written not 1, but 3 books on that topic! As for me, I am new to dividend investing, preferring to fish for multi-baggers and occasionally ending up with salted fishes. He has settled down with a family while I do not yet know the financial demands of a family with kids. So, really, retirement before 40 is out for me even if I had wanted it.  

By right, the story should have ended here, if not for the fact that it is the 40th birthday. The 40th birthday is a funny milestone. It represents the mid-point of your life. You could also divide 40 by 2 and look back at the time when you were 20, when you were just stepping out into the world, to see if you had made the right decisions then. You could also look forward to see if you wish to continue your life the way it is now. 

As I think deeper on the topic, I realised that retirement is not about leaving the workforce and enjoying life. True, you might relish the luxury of waking up later in the day and spending time doing things that you really want to do but could not find the time to do while you were still working. You might even go on a round-the-world tour with your family. But how many times could you tour the world? Even the best things in life could get boring if they are repeated too many times. So, what do you do after you finish touring the world 5 times over? 

You get back to an "occupation", something that will soak up your time. But there is a difference between the work that you do before 40 and the occupation that you have after 40. Before 40, work is a "chore". Something that you need to do to put meals on the dining table. The work that we do sometimes might not be what we really want to do. It could be because we did not know what we wanted to do when we were 20, or it could be the circumstances that forced us to take the jobs available to us then. After 40, if you have attained financial freedom, occupation is a "choice". Something that you do, not because you need to bring the bacon home, but to fulfil the purpose in your life. It could be something that you are deeply passionate about, such as a hobby or a charitable cause. It is the sort of things that will form your legacy. For example, your legacy could not possibly be "I worked at XXX company, helping to grow sales by 20 times over 20 years!". Instead, your legacy could be "I wrote a blog that helps to promote financial literacy" or something bigger. So, when I heard that Christopher is studying for a law degree, I did not think that he is coming out of retirement because he has "no choice". On the contrary, I think he is pursuing his retirement fully. 

It is interesting to note that Christopher and I could not have been more different in actions. At one end, he has retired before 40 while at the other end, I am thinking of working beyond 65. Yet, both of us reached essentially the same conclusion on what retiring at 40 means.

P.S. Special thanks to Christopher for allowing me to discuss our views on this topic.


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Sunday, 12 April 2015

How Many Months Do You Have to Work This Year?

Beginning this year, I switched to an Android phone and had to use a new app to record my expenses. The beauty of this new app is that it allows me to enter scheduled expenses ahead of time. Thus, by the first day of the year, I was already down by $5,000 (not counting those variable or unknown monthly expenses such as utilities and taxes). This reminded me of an exercise that I carried out once a while -- to figure out how many months do I have to work to cover all my expenses and financial commitments for the year. For this year, I would have to work for 8.6 months, or more precisely, 8 months and 18 days. Hence, I will have to work until 18 Sep to cover all my expenses and financial commitments for the year.

What is the use of this exercise? Well, firstly, I will look forward to 18 Sep, because from 18 Sep onwards, all the salary earned will be for me to keep. It is quite liberating to know that you only work for yourself after this date. Secondly, I will see what I could do to bring forward the date. That means either increasing my income or reducing my expenses, the latter being easier to do than the former. Thus, if I wish to indulge on myself, it will also mean that I will have to work a few more hours or days. It is quite an effective tool to keep me from spending more than I need.

If you too wish to engage in this mental exercise, there are a few things to take note of. Firstly, you might receive bonuses in the course of the year. Ignore these bonuses in this calculation. Bonuses should be, like their name suggests, a bonus to us. Imagine if you need to rely on those bonuses to cover all the expenses, that would be quite frightening, isn't it? What would happen if the bonuses do not materialise? 

Secondly, you might also have other income streams, such as dividends and rental income. It is a personal preference as to whether you should include such income streams in your income. The advantage of including these is that you can see the tangible benefits of investing. As your dividends grow, the no. of months you need to work will correspondingly reduce, keeping all other things constant. The year when your dividends are more than sufficient to cover all your expenses will be the year you can retire. That will provide great motivation to keep on investing. For me, I prefer to exclude dividends. It is a more conservative approach, matching operating income to operating expenses. Like bonuses, dividends are extras, which make them sweeter. Moreover, it is quite difficult to forecast the amount of dividends you will receive in the year. 

Thirdly, you might also have income and expenses outside the cash account, such as CPF contributions and mortage repayment. So long as the contributions are adequate to cover the mortage repayment and no cash payment is required, it is OK to leave them out of the equation. 

So, perhaps the next time somebody asks me whom do I work for, I could tell him I work for the banks ;)


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Monday, 6 April 2015

About Blogging and Investing

This is Post No. 104, which makes it 2 years' worth of blog posts for this weekly blog. I hope readers will forgive me if I blog about other things during this time every year.

Blogging has never been easy for me, despite this being a weekly blog. By Thursday of every week, I would have to think about what to blog for the weekend and after I have found a idea, I would have to think about the content and organise them to form a coherent post. Occasionally, I would also need to carry out some research to check the facts. There have been a few occasions where the facts did not match the hypothesis and I had to discard the idea and find a new one. Even when I start to write the post, the thoughts do not always flow smoothly. I have to review and re-write. It is often a 2 steps forward, 1 step backward process. When I have finally completed the post, I would read and re-read, to check whether the facts are correct and see if the sentences could be written in a clearer way. The process of writing the post easily takes 2 to 3 hours. So, if I am late in my weekly blog posts, that is usually what happens. 

Despite the hard work, blogging in itself is satisfying, knowing that I could share knowledge with other fellow investors in Singapore. If not, I could never have persevered till today. Not only that, I have found a group of like-minded bloggers and readers who appreciate my posts. I would like to take this occasion to thank them for their continuous support during these 2 years. 

Besides the inherent satisfaction of blogging, I also like to keep track of the pageview count on my blog after writing a new post. It is just like a film director who not only wishes that his film is good but also popular. A high pageview count would delight me, while a low pageview count would leave me a little discouraged. Every week, I would write a post, hoping that the pageview count would increase. Sometimes, I would think that a particular blog post was well-written and could attract many views, but it turned out to be disappointing. Sometimes, I see the pageview count of other bloggers numbering into the million and wonder when could I ever come close to it. Sometimes, I see new bloggers coming onto the scene and their pageview counts quickly exceed mine in a short space of time.

In a way, the pageview count is like the wealth we are trying to accumulate. Every week and every month, we would invest our savings to increase our wealth. Sometimes, we would think that we have made a good investment and deserve large returns, only to see it fall short of expectations. Sometimes, we see millionaires living in private condominiums and driving large cars and wonder when would it be our turn. Sometimes, we see people younger than us making more money than us. 

That is Life. As a "young" blogger, I can understand your frustrations. You often hear that you can get rich by working hard, spending wisely and investing your income, but you hardly see any results despite 2-3 years of living frugally. You saw everything that I mentioned above and wondered if it is still worth the efforts and whether you are on the right path. As an "old" investor, I can assure you that you are on your way to achieving your goals. Every step you take today might not seem significant today, but every step is one step closer to your goals. When you have reached your goals and you look back, I believe you would not want to have it in any other ways. If it was too easy, you would have lost interest and not appreciate what you have achieved. So, take heart and march on. Just like if this blog post is not popular, write the next one!


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Sunday, 29 March 2015

A Moment of Silence for Mr Lee Kuan Yew

This weekly blog will not be publishing any financial blog post this week as a mark of respect for Mr Lee Kuan Yew. Let's take this moment together to remember the contributions that Mr Lee and countless members of his generation have made to the Singapore we have today.

Sunday, 22 March 2015

The Anti-Fragile Portfolios

Most investors will worry about a bear market. However, if you have an anti-fragile portfolio, then you should not need to worry about it. In fact, you should maybe even relish it should one comes along. What is an anti-fragile portfolio?

First of all, let us define what is "anti-fragile". The word "anti-fragile" comes from the book bearing the same name written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It is used to describe things that will become stronger from shocks. It is different from "robust", which just means things can withstand shocks but will neither gain nor lose from them. As Taleb himself is a former trader, he gave examples of what instruments are anti-fragile. One such instrument is options, which will rise substantially in price should an unexpected shock (also known as a "Black Swan" event) occurs. Thus, an example of an anti-fragile portfolio is a barbell portfolio comprising mostly of, say, conservative government bonds and a small portion allocated to instruments that would gain substantially from shocks.

Actually, some of the commonly known investment strategies do have some anti-fragile properties. I realised it unintentionally with my unit trust investments which are invested using Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. 2 unit trusts -- an index fund and a balanced fund, were invested using DCA. During the Global Financial Crisis, the index fund fell by 55% while the balanced fund fell by 40%. Yet, when they recovered to their original prices, the more volatile index fund returned an annualised gain of 7.0% compared to only 3.1% for the less volatile balanced fund. You can refer to Dollar Cost Averaging Works Best with Volatile Stocks/ Unit Trusts for more info.

Another investment strategy that has some anti-fragile properties is portfolio rebalancing. When setting up my passive portfolio, I had run some simulations and back-testing to see what sort of stocks and bonds would provide the greatest returns in the long run. The results show that stocks and bonds with the greatest volatility actually provide the best returns. You can refer to Volatility is Your Friend for more info.

It should be highlighted that the above 2 investment strategies have some major differences compared to a barbell portfolio. With the latter, you will make small gains during normal times and significant gains when shocks happen. With DCA and portfolio rebalancing, the portfolios will drop in tandem with the stock market but will show large gains when the stock market recovers. I call them "anti-fragile" because they have the ability to bounce back from a market shock and emerge stronger.

When I set up my passive portfolio in Dec 2013, I had not picked the most volatile stocks and bonds. The stock component was a global index fund while the bond component was a global bond fund. Both funds were global in geographical coverage so as to reduce country-specific risks. So far, the returns from this portfolio has been pretty good, at 12% over a 14-month holding period, although the anti-fragile property of it has not been tested yet.

This time round, I'm setting up a more spicy passive portfolio with components that are more volatile. In Oct last year, I blogged about the US stock market being one of the best performing stock markets over a 26-year period in Not All Market Indices Are Equal. So, the stock component is the LionGlobal Infinity US 500 Stock Index fund. The bond component is Fullerton Asian Bond Fund. Like the non-spicy passive portfolio, the mix is 70% stocks and 30% bonds, to be rebalanced whenever the allocation exceeds the original allocation by 8%. Both components are non-global and therefore subject to more risks. So, if my analysis is correct, this spicy passive portfolio should perform better than the non-spicy one over the long run. Let us see if it really is.

P.S. I am currently in the busy phase of my project, so I won't be able to respond to your comments. Hope to seek your understanding on this.


Sunday, 15 March 2015

Possibly The Worst Time to Invest – A Year On

About a year ago, I blogged about setting up a passive portfolio comprising of 70% stocks and 30% bonds and discussed whether it could the worst time to invest, considering that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was near an all-time high and the Federal Reserves was planning to raise interest rates from an all-time low. You can read more about it at Possibly The Worst Time to Invest. After a year has passed, how has the portfolio performed?

The portfolio was started in Dec 2013 with a lump sum investment. Since then, an additional investment amounting to around 13% of the intial investment was made in Mar 2014. Dividends received from the bonds were also reinvested back into the bonds. Other than that, the portfolio was left untouched and the market conditions did not trigger any rebalancing. After 14 months of investing, the portfolio has grown by around 12%, which is quite a respectable amount. Thus, if you have a good game plan and a good defence in place, do not let the current market conditions stop you from investing, because nobody can predict accurately when it is a bad time to invest.

You might counter that compared to a year ago, today's conditions are a worse time to invest than last year, with DJIA touching yet new highs and interest rates already starting to move up. But without using hindsight, would you agree with me that this time last year, the risk of a market correction is equally real? In fact, the stock market did encounter some turbulence in Oct last year. Not only that, oil prices crashed by more than 50% in the space of less than 6 months, currencies of oil-exporting countries depreciated, China's growth slowed down and Greece was at risk of exiting the Euro zone. All these are real occurrences, but they did not bring down the stock market, except for a brief period in Oct and for oil-related stocks. In essence, there are always worrisome events that can stop you from investing, but if you do that, you would also miss out on any gains in the stock market during the period you are out of it.

Some of you might be increasing your war chest in preparation of the coming bear market. Shoring up your defences is always a good thing, but too much of a good thing can become a bad thing. Even if a bear market is really coming, does it mean that an investor with 100% war chest will definitely do better than another investor with only 50% war chest? Much will depend on how these 2 investors deploy their war chests, how long and how low they think the market would go, and what stocks they buy. The key issue is, besides having a war chest, do you also have a good game plan to go with it? Besides, you know that inflation will erode the value of your cash if you keep too much of it. One thing I found out after 15 years of investing is that you can actually lose more money to inflation over a long period of time than to a single bear market. See Inflation - The Silent Killer for more info.

For new investors, you might think that the worst thing that can happen to your investments is to have a severe bear market shortly after you started investing. This is actually recoverable. I started investing my Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) account in Nov 2007. Shortly after that, the Global Financial Crisis began and my index fund fell by more than 55% in price. Yet, when the fund recovered to its original price in Oct 2014, it provided an annualised return of 7.0%. You can read more about it in Review of My SRS Investments. The key strategy to this recovery is the use of Dollar Cost Averaging to invest in this index fund.

Actually, having a bear market just after you started investing is not the end of the world. The worst thing that can happen to an investor is to have a severe bear market just before retirement, not just after investing. To a young person who has just started working and investing, the amount of money invested is small. Not only that, he has 30 years of incoming cashflows from his job to fund his investments. But to a person who is just about to retire, he probably has a lot more money invested. To make things worse, he has 20 years of outgoing cashflows from his investments to fund his retirement. The longer you prevent falling down, the more painful your fall is.  

Like Life, investing is not about preventing falls. It is more important to learn how to fall down with minimum hurt and pick yourself up. The first time you fall down, it is going to be very painful, it might even bleed or leave a scar. But if you learn how to pick yourself up after a fall, then no amount of falls will bring you down. Each time the market brings you down, you will pick yourself up and become stronger. Some of the more experienced investors will tell you that one of their proudest things about investing is to survive and thrive in many bear markets! So, do you have a good game plan to thrive in the next bear market?

P.S. I am currently in the busy phase of my project, so I won't be able to respond to your comments. Hope to seek your understanding on this.


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