Sunday, 29 June 2014

The Multi-Baggers of SGX

The concept of multi-baggers was first made popular by the legendary Peter Lynch in his book "One Up on Wall Street". A multi-bagger means that a share has multiplied several times over in price. Do multi-baggers exist on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), or are they confined to US shares which have a lot of geography to grow their businesses compared to Singapore shares? Here is a list of all multi-baggers listed on the SGX that retained their original stock codes between May 2006 and May 2014. In total, there are 442 shares out of 709 shares in May 2006 that retained their original stock codes. Shares that have changed their stock codes due to corporate actions such as bonus issues and share splits have not been included in this analysis.

Name May-06 May-14 % Gain
RH Petrogas Ltd 0.060 0.660 1000%
Design Studio Group Ltd 0.045 0.480 967%
Yongnam Holdings Ltd 0.025 0.240 860%
Breadtalk Group Ltd 0.195 1.450 644%
Ramba Energy Ltd 0.085 0.490 477%
Super Group Ltd 0.600 3.390 465%
Vicom Ltd 1.040 5.830 461%
Swissco Holdings Ltd 0.075 0.415 453%
Chinavision Media Group Ltd 0.033 0.177 439%
MTQ Corporation Ltd 0.380 1.975 420%
Straco Corporation Ltd 0.125 0.645 416%
Lian Beng Group Ltd 0.155 0.705 355%
Casa Holdings Ltd 0.045 0.200 344%
Raffles Medical Group Ltd 0.800 3.500 338%
Transit-Mixed Concrete Ltd 0.095 0.415 337%
Rowsley Ltd 0.065 0.280 331%
Loyz Energy Ltd 0.075 0.315 320%
ABR Holdings Ltd 0.215 0.880 309%
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd 10.800 43.530 303%
Progen Holdings Ltd 0.040 0.160 300%
King Wan Corporation Ltd 0.075 0.295 293%
Genting Singapore PLC 0.360 1.330 269%
Nobel Design Holdings Ltd 0.155 0.560 261%
Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Ltd 0.170 0.605 256%
OKP Holdings Ltd 0.085 0.300 253%
Lee Metal Group Ltd 0.120 0.410 242%
Superbowl Holdings Ltd 0.220 0.750 241%
Challenger Technologies Ltd 0.160 0.530 231%
LHT Holdings Ltd 0.040 0.131 228%
Tye Soon Ltd 0.060 0.195 225%
Tuan Sing Holdings Ltd 0.105 0.340 224%
Jardine Matheson Hldgs Ltd 24.031 76.723 219%
United Envirotech Ltd 0.395 1.250 217%
Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd 0.235 0.735 213%
Jardine Strategic Hldgs Ltd 14.519 43.919 203%
Giken Sakata (S) Ltd 0.100 0.295 195%
Heeton Holdings Ltd 0.230 0.670 191%
Dairy Farm Int'l Holdings Ltd 4.506 13.067 190%
Koh Brothers Group Ltd 0.110 0.310 182%
Spindex Industries Ltd 0.180 0.490 172%
Tianjin Zhong Xin Pharm Group 0.501 1.352 170%
Far East Orchard Ltd 0.710 1.885 166%
Ho Bee Land Ltd 0.875 2.200 151%
Lee Kim Tah Hldgs Ltd 0.360 0.900 150%
Tai Sin Electric Ltd 0.140 0.350 150%
Etika International Hldgs Ltd 0.165 0.410 149%
Petra Foods Ltd 1.470 3.530 140%
Silverlake Axis Ltd 0.375 0.900 140%
Lion Teck Chiang Ltd 0.315 0.755 140%
Cortina Holdings Ltd 0.360 0.855 138%
Noel Gifts International Ltd 0.115 0.265 130%
Falcon Energy Group Ltd 0.150 0.345 130%
United Industrial Corp Ltd 1.480 3.330 125%
BRC Asia Ltd 0.090 0.200 122%
Sarine Technologies Ltd 1.080 2.400 122%
Select Group Ltd 0.160 0.350 119%
See Hup Seng Ltd 0.135 0.295 119%
Sim Lian Group Ltd 0.405 0.875 116%
Pollux Properties Ltd 0.040 0.085 113%
Karin Technology Hldgs Ltd 0.145 0.305 110%
Powermatic Data Systems Ltd 0.070 0.146 109%
Ying Li Intl Real Estate Ltd 0.130 0.270 108%
Teckwah Industrial Corp Ltd 0.195 0.400 105%
UOL Group Ltd 3.260 6.630 103%
Addvalue Technologies Ltd 0.065 0.132 103%
Sakae Holdings Ltd 0.265 0.530 100%

Collectively, how have all the shares listed on SGX performed over the 8-year period from May 2006 till May 2014? Figure 1 below shows the distribution of multi-baggers. A positive value indicates that the price has multiplied while a negative value indicates that the price has reduced. For example, a (+2)-bagger means that the share price has doubled, while a (-2)-bagger means that the share price has halved.

Figure 1: Distribution of Multi-Baggers on SGX

On average, about half of the shares have neither doubled nor halved in price. 2-baggers form 7% (equivalent to 1 in 14) of the shares, while 3-baggers form 3.4% (1 in 29) of the shares. In total, positive multi-baggers form 14.9% of the shares. In other words, 1 in 7 shares have multiplied in price from May 2006 till May 2014.

On the converse side, 10.6% (1 in 9) of the shares have seen their prices halved, while another 5.2% (1 in 19) have their prices divided by 3 times or more. In total, negative multi-baggers form 36.9% of the shares. In other words, 1 in 3 shares have their prices at least halved from May 2006 till May 2014.

It is interesting to note that the no. of negative multi-baggers exceed that of positive multi-baggers for the same multiple, i.e. (-2)-baggers exceed (+2)-baggers, (-3)-baggers exceed (+3)-baggers, etc. At the extreme ends, a significant 8.4% (1 in 12) of the shares actually have their prices divided by 10 times or more! In contrast, only 2 shares have their prices multiplied by 10 times or more.

Figure 2 below shows the distribution of multi-baggers based on their prices in May 2006 while Figure 3 shows the same distribution in percentage terms.

Figure 2: Distribution of Multi-Baggers Based on May 2006 Share Price

Figure 2: Percentage Distribution of Multi-Baggers Based on May 2006 Share Price

Are your shares part of the multi-baggers that beat the Straits Time Index and the majority of investors hands-down? If so, you are on your way to becoming the Peter Lynch of Singapore!


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5 comments:

  1. Createwealth888829 June 2014 at 08:07

    If you could add another column showing their low during 2009; it will be interesting to see how retail investors panic sold in 2009 and missing these multi-baggers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lee Chin Wai29 June 2014 at 14:37

      Thanks for your suggestion. Yes, it'll be interesting to find out how these stocks performed in the depth of the Global Financial Crisis. I'll consider this in my next blog post.

      Delete
  2. My 15HWW29 June 2014 at 16:48

    Hi Chin Wai,

    Thanks for the collation and I find it really useful! Will definitely take a good look at the businesses behind some of these names.

    If we understand how they became multi-baggers, maybe we could have a good chance to find out those 8 years down the road?

    Regards,
    My 15HWW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lee Chin Wai29 June 2014 at 20:20

      You're welcome :)

      Yes, that's my intention also.

      Delete
  3. Unknown3 July 2014 at 13:58

    Amazing blog post.Mentioning about the SGX Exchange publicly, considering the market as the sgx city and telling us that share trading can be an exiting task but, actually, it's a boring source of making money.

    ReplyDelete

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